Plan

From last time:

• birthday paradox
• StarLogo birthday simulation
• theoretical poker probabilities
• estimating poker probabilities using Extend

This time:

• expected value
• decisions
• probability rules
  1. Real numbers between 0 and 1, inclusive. 0 <= P(A) <= 1
  2. The event that certainly occurs has probability 1; an event that cannot occur as probability 0.
  3. If two events are mutually exclusive (their Venn diagrams don't overlap), then the probability that either occurs is the sum of their individual probabilities.
  4. The probability of an event and its complement sum to one: P(A)+P(A')=1
• odds
• addition rule
• general addition rule
• conditional probability