The “AI Jobs Cliff”

This post is one of my advice & arguments pages about the harms and hazards of the AI Hype Movement.

“As we approach the coming jobs cliff, we’re entering a period where a college isn’t going to be worth it for the majority of people, since AI will take over most white-collar jobs. Combined with the demographic cliff, the entire higher education system will crumble.”

This is the kind of statement you don’t hear that much from sub-CEO-level #AI boosters, because it’s awkward for them to admit that the tech they think is improving their life is going to be disastrous for society. Or if they do admit this, they spin it like it’s a good thing (don’t get me wrong, tuition is ludicrously high and higher education absolutely could be improved by a wholesale reinvention, but the potential AI-fueled collapse won’t be an improvement).

I’m in the “anti-AI” crowd myself, and I think the current tech is in a hype bubble that will collapse before we see wholesale replacement of white-collar jobs, with a re-hiring to come that will somewhat make up for the current decimation. There will still be a lot of fallout for higher ed (and hopefully some productive transformation), but it might not be apocalyptic.

Fun question to ask the next person who extols the virtues of using generative AI for their job: “So how long until your boss can fire you and use the AI themselves?”

The following ideas are contradictory:

1. “AI is good enough to automate a lot of mundane tasks.”
2. “AI is improving a lot so those pesky issues will be fixed soon.”
3. “AI still needs supervision so I’m still needed to do the full job.”